The hottest new energy industry balances the devel

2022-09-22
  • Detail

If the new energy industry is a balance, electric vehicles and charging facilities are the two ends of the balance. Neither side can balance the balance if it lags behind...

the new energy vehicle industry has risen to the height of China's national strategy Jinan test, a powerful auxiliary tool for data analysis, statistics and curve analysis, It has become a consensus to rely on the development of new energy vehicles to realize the long-standing dream of becoming a powerful automobile country. With the concerted efforts of all sectors of the industry, China's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly in recent years and made obvious achievements

looking at the overall situation, compared with the rapid development of the new energy vehicle market, the construction of charging infrastructure has not been developed accordingly. The construction cost of charging stations/piles is high, the income is low, the number is not enough, the layout is unreasonable, and the interconnection is not up to... If this series of problems are not properly solved as soon as possible, the future of the development of new energy vehicles in China can be described as worrying

first, the growth of charging facilities can not keep up with the growth of new energy vehicle market

from the perspective of production and marketing scale, the proportion of new energy vehicles in the global market has exceeded 50%; From the perspective of enterprise competition, BYD and Yutong have become the Sales Champions of global new energy passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles respectively; From the perspective of product technology, the driving range of the whole vehicle, battery energy density, platformization/lightweight and other levels have been adjusted accordingly, and the position of the tensioning wheel (which needs to be stopped after the lower shroud of the main body is removed) has been rapidly improved

Figure 1. The increase of energy density of the models in the catalogue of the first batch of new energy vehicles exempted from purchase tax

however, while seeing the achievements of the new energy vehicle industry, we should also see the shortcomings in the development - from the perspective of the whole industry chain, China's new energy vehicle industry has made great progress in the front end, middle end and other aspects, but this can not hide the actual situation of lagging behind in the rear end

in the field of charging infrastructure, China has built a total of about 180000 public charging piles. With the number of private charging piles, the total vehicle pile ratio is about 4:1, which is far from meeting the normal charging needs of new energy vehicles. Under the situation of rapid development of the front-end and middle-end industries, the bottleneck restriction phenomenon of lagging back-end is becoming increasingly prominent

Figure 2 panorama of the new energy vehicle industry chain

II. The development of charging infrastructure has been lagging behind for a long time

the contradiction between the rapid expansion of the production and marketing scale of new energy vehicles in China and the lagging infrastructure construction is like a cold day, which is a long-standing chronic disease

the data shows that although the number of charging piles is increasing rapidly, and the vehicle pile ratio has also increased to the current 4:1 year by year, it can not be ignored that the growth scale of new energy vehicles is still significantly higher than the growth scale of the number of charging piles, which means that the gap between vehicle piles is still expanding. Taking the statistical data of 2015 and 2016 as an example, the number of public charging piles increased by 100000, but the number of new energy vehicles increased by more than 170000, still not reaching the synchronous growth of 1:1, while also increasing the gap of 70000

Figure 3 Comparison between the sales of new energy vehicles and the development of the number of public charging piles in China

take a deeper look at the local development and find that the situation is still not optimistic. By the end of 2016, the number of new energy vehicles in major provinces and cities far exceeded the number of public charging piles, and the vehicle pile ratio ranged from 3:1 to 6:1. Including areas with advanced development such as Beijing and Shanghai, new energy vehicles still cannot find sufficient supply points, and there is still an obvious phenomenon of inconvenient charging, and the bitterness and complaints of new energy vehicle owners are always filled with various social software

Table 1 Comparison of the number of new energy vehicles and public charging piles in some provinces and cities at the end of 2016

in contrast, by the end of 2016, 100000 gas stations had been built across the country, which can provide more than 1.2 million gas stations at the same time, and the refueling process can be completed in an average of 3 minutes per vehicle. According to this calculation, in a day, the national gas stations can refuel up to 1.2 million * 24 hours * 60 minutes/3 minutes =576 million vehicles. Even after deducting the 12 hours at night, they can refuel more than 200 million vehicles at the same time, achieving a 1:1 ratio

obviously, the huge convenience advantage of fuel vehicles is like a mountain in front of new energy vehicles, but it is extremely difficult to overcome

III. The policy combination is intended to solve the problem of lagging charging facilities

1. National policy

in the face of the chronic disease of lagging charging infrastructure construction, in October 2015, the country has issued a guiding document on the development of charging infrastructure - "guiding opinions on accelerating the construction of electric vehicle charging infrastructure" (GBF [2015] No. 73), which defines the overall requirements for the construction of charging facilities, from strengthening construction 18 policy requirements are put forward in four aspects: accelerating the cultivation of the market, strengthening support and guarantee, and doing a good job in organization and implementation

then, the National Energy Administration issued the guidance document for the construction of charging infrastructure, the guide for the development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (year), and put forward the planning and construction objectives of charging facilities by type and region. Among them, it is emphasized that by 2020, more than 12000 centralized charging and replacement power stations and more than 4.8 million decentralized charging piles will be added to meet the charging demand of 5million new energy vehicles

at the same time, AQSIQ, the National Standards Commission and other departments also organized the preparation of the newly revised "electric vehicle conductive charging system Part 1: General requirements", "electric vehicle conductive charging connection device part 1: General requirements", "electric vehicle conductive charging connection device part 2: AC charging interface", "electric vehicle conductive charging connection device part 3: DC charging interface" Five national standards for electric vehicle charging interfaces and communication protocols, including the communication protocol between electric vehicle off board conductive charger and battery management system. It is intended to solve the problems of inconsistent standards and incompatible interfaces between different brands and realize interconnection

Figure 4 new national standard for charging and its main contents

2. Local policies

driven by the central guidance and actual development needs, local governments have also strengthened their attention to charging infrastructure, and have successively issued a number of local policies to promote the construction of local charging infrastructure and certification of responsible testing. Among the relevant policies, the subsidy policy is the most common. For example, the Wuhan government gives a financial subsidy of no more than 3million yuan/station to the Construction Party of DC charging station, which is not small for local finance

Table 2 a list of charging subsidy policies issued by local governments in 2017

it seems that with the concerted efforts of governments at all levels, the charging infrastructure urgently needed by new energy vehicles has been sharpened and is about to burst out at full speed, opening up the last two channels of appointment and supervision, and helping the industry to further improve. However, the fact is not so optimistic

IV. the construction of charging facilities is still in deep trouble.

the construction of charging infrastructure for new energy vehicles is not optimistic, but more urgent and difficult than ever before, mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1. The high construction cost of public charging piles and the long recovery cycle have not been effectively improved.

the construction cost of public charging stations is mainly composed of equipment, land and power capacity increase, Taking a small charging station (charger) in a second tier city as an example, the equipment cost is about more than 3 million yuan, and the power capacity increase is also about 10000 yuan. Coupled with the land cost and later operation cost, the investment of 10 million yuan can not be sustained. Even in accordance with Wuhan's subsidy policy, it can only get a subsidy of more than 1 million, and the investor still needs to invest more than 8 million

according to the charging service fee of 0.6 yuan/kwh, the income earned by a pure electric vehicle with a driving range of 250 kilometers after a full charge is only about 20 yuan. Basically, it takes 400000 vehicles/time to earn back the cost. This is still an optimistic estimate. The actual situation estimates that 10000 vehicles/time is very normal

obviously, most charging stations cannot achieve such high results within a few years, and can only rely on parking fees, advertising and other ways to make money. Instead, charging service fees have become ancillary income. There is no way. Who is a drop in the bucket

in fact, this problem has a long history, but it has not been improved

2. Private car purchase has become the main force, but the construction process of private charging piles is particularly lagging behind.

at present, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles has accounted for nearly 70% of the total, and this figure is still rising. In this case, private car purchase has become the main demand for the sales of new energy vehicles. The insurance data of the first half of 2017 shows that the proportion of users who purchase new energy vehicles has reached 88.5%

Figure 5 insurance situation of pure electric passenger vehicles in 2017

it is obvious that the vast majority of the 5million new energy vehicles by 2020 will be private users. For such users, it is not public charging piles that can really improve their charging experience, but private charging piles built by themselves. The current data shows that the number of private charging piles is less than 30000, which is roughly double the shortage of public charging piles

even so, most places pay only superficial attention to the construction of private charging piles, which are not implemented as public charging piles. Different from the difficulties of public charging piles, private pile construction is faced with the kicking ball of property, Guodian and other departments, which often takes time and effort and can't be done. Even though the guide for the development of electric vehicle charging infrastructure (year) stipulates that property coordination should be strengthened and proposes to formulate a nationally unified model text for the construction and management of charging infrastructure in the residence of private users, this problem has not been solved so far because it is only a guide and has no mandatory driving force at all

especially the reconstruction of old residential areas is even more difficult, especially the power capacity increase. No one can say why, so it has been put on hold. Precisely, the owners of huge old residential areas are the main group of new energy vehicle demand in the future

3. Focusing on urban areas rather than suburbs, cities rather than highways, greatly limits the sales potential of finished vehicles.

from the local policies that have been released so far, most local governments with poor market activity still focus on urban areas, and do not pay much attention to highways or suburbs. When the driving range of autonomous pure electric vehicles continues to exceed 300 kilometers, the lack of high-speed charging will make new energy vehicles become "short legged women" living at home

even if a few warriors can overcome the difficulties of long-distance driving, it is undeniable that most people will give up new energy vehicles because of the inconvenience of charging for long-distance travel. This phenomenon will become more prominent in the coming years, because new energy vehicles replace traditional fuel vehicles, not motorcycles or tricycles

4. The charging experience is poor, and there are still questions about when the comprehensive interconnection will be achieved.

although the state has issued a new national standard for charging and upgraded it to a "mandatory standard" in disguised form through the implementation plan of the new national standard for the interface of electric vehicle charging infrastructure, it has only completed the interconnection of charging interfaces, and the interconnection of charging transaction settlement and charging service information has not been completed, with a dozen apps, It's not easy to navigate. In the past, half of the navigation was charged and half was broken. This situation is not uncommon. It can be said that

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